A new statewide poll suggests that a majority of Californians believe their state is moving in the wrong direction, highlighting growing dissatisfaction as voters prepare for a major election year that will determine the state’s next governor and potentially reshape its political leadership.
The Emerson College survey, released Tuesday, found that 52 percent of likely California voters think the state is currently on the wrong track. By comparison, 48 percent said they believe California is headed in the right direction. The findings point to a divided electorate in a state long dominated by Democratic leadership.
Even in Los Angeles, one of the most reliably Democratic regions in the country, voters appeared split. The poll found residents evenly divided, with 50 percent saying the state is moving in the right direction and the other 50 percent saying it is heading the wrong way.
The poll’s release comes as California approaches its June 2 gubernatorial primary. Under the state’s “top two” election system, all candidates compete in a single primary regardless of party affiliation, with the two candidates receiving the most votes advancing to the general election in November.
Current Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom is not eligible to run again due to term limits, leaving the race wide open for candidates from both major parties.
According to the Emerson poll, Democratic Representative Eric Swalwell currently leads the field with 17 percent support among likely voters. He is followed by former Fox News host Steve Hilton with 13 percent, billionaire activist Tom Steyer with 11 percent, Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco with 11 percent, and former Democratic Representative Katie Porter with 8 percent.
A significant portion of voters remains undecided. Approximately one quarter of respondents said they have not yet chosen a candidate, suggesting the race could shift significantly as the campaign progresses.
Among Democrats, Swalwell’s support has grown in recent weeks, increasing from 23 percent to 27 percent. Steyer also saw gains within the Democratic electorate, rising from 12 percent to 16 percent support.
Independent voters appear far less settled. The survey found that 39 percent of independent voters remain undecided, while both Swalwell and Hilton currently hold about 12 percent support within that group.
Republican voters are largely divided between Hilton and Bianco, with Hilton receiving 38 percent support and Bianco drawing 34 percent.
Because of California’s top-two primary system, analysts note that it is possible for two candidates from the same party to advance to the general election. In a scenario where Hilton and Bianco both secure enough support in the primary, the state could theoretically elect a Republican governor despite its Democratic tilt.
The poll also highlighted several issues driving voter concerns across the state. The economy ranked as the top issue for 37 percent of respondents, followed by housing affordability at 22 percent. By comparison, 11 percent of voters listed threats to democracy as their top concern, while 8 percent cited immigration and 7 percent pointed to healthcare.
California’s homelessness crisis also remains a major point of public frustration. According to the survey, 53 percent of voters believe homelessness in the state is getting worse. Another 33 percent said the situation is staying about the same, while only 15 percent believe it is improving.
Meanwhile, California continues to see population losses as residents relocate to other states. Data cited by The Malibu Times shows the state experienced a net loss of roughly 216,000 residents in 2025, following a loss of about 239,000 residents between 2023 and 2024. Population declines were even more pronounced during the COVID-era migration shifts.
Governor Newsom has not publicly commented on the poll results. However, speculation continues to grow about his political future. During an October 2025 interview with “CBS News Sunday Morning,” Newsom acknowledged that he may consider running for president in 2028, saying he would be “lying” if he claimed he had not thought about the possibility.
The Emerson College survey was conducted between March 7 and March 9 among 1,000 likely California voters. The poll carries a credibility interval comparable to a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points. A separate sample of 350 likely voters in Los Angeles has a credibility interval of plus or minus 5.2 percentage points.
