As the dog days of summer were drawing to a close and people were anticipating the coming midterm elections, there was a prevalent narrative circulating that the Democratic Party would likely retain their majority in the House and probably limit their losses to just a few seats.
That storyline was driven by just a few political sites like Nate Silver’s with less than accurate election models ignoring the basic fundamentals of the voting electorate.
But when you ignore the fundamentals and instead focus diligently on historically bad polling, you disseminate disinformation to the American public. There is mounting evidence now that indicates the House of Representatives is a lost cause for the Democratic Party.
The positive momentum is now replaced by inner-party fights in districts that are not even supposed to be at risk. And most experts agree that things are going to get even worse as we approach election day.
Rhode Island’s 2nd District is the perfect example of the shining momentum. Republican Allan Fung leads Democrat Seth Magaziner by 8 points now. That should be a neon light for Democrats revealing that even when you allow for the changes that were made in redistricting, Joe Biden won that same region by a massive 14 points.
So how in the world is a Republican about to win in the midterms? It should not even be competitive, much less the GOP leading by 8 points.
And that is just one example of the shift that has taken place, Oregon’s 6th district is another one. The situation is dire for the Democrats there as well now. After you take into account the changes in districting, Joe Biden won that region by 13 points in 2020, and today, Republican Mike Erickson leads by 5 points. Stunning.
But there is even more. The information coming to the surface nationally adds up to more than a slight swing, it looks like there is a red wave coming. Democrats are having to viciously defend districts that should not be in play and were not even on the table just a few months ago. Remember when the model was “Democrats are resurgent” as the phase of political modeling? If these heavily rooted Democratic districts are now in play, there are lots of seats that were much closer than that which are lost by now.
Now experts are coming out saying that it is probably that Republicans will easily go over the 240-seat count when the November voting is done.
The GOP should be getting out their surfboards.
