The prediction market Kalshi has issued its first-ever lifetime ban to former Rep. George Santos over suspicious trading activity. The platform also hit him with a $71,356 penalty for allegedly manipulating contracts tied to his own appearance at President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address, per the Washington Examiner.
Kalshi says it has permanently banned former NY Congressman George Santos from its platform after he placed bets on whether he (Santos) would attend a State of the Union address, plus a penalty of ~$70,000 pic.twitter.com/a9sfcjI02o
— Brendan Pedersen (@BrendanPedersen) August 31, 2026
This isn’t just about a politician getting caught. It is about the rules of the game and who plays by them. Santos made nearly $18,000 in profits by saying one thing to the public and betting the opposite on the market. That is not smart trading. That is cheating your neighbors out of their money.
Santos, who was expelled from Congress in 2023, played a dangerous game in February 2026. He bet heavily that he would attend the address, then told his followers he would wear a “bedazzled” suit, according to the Daily Wire. The odds shifted in his favor, and he cashed out $3,400 in profits that same day.
Then he flipped the script. Days before the speech, he claimed he was going to be there in the gallery. But on the day of the event, he bet thousands that he would not show up. He told his followers he had to watch “from an airport tv” because of bad weather, per the Washington Examiner.
The Kalshi Compliance Department said they found reasonable cause to believe he engaged in trading activity to manipulate prices. The report stated he made “false or misleading statements” with the intent to move the market, according to the Daily Wire. He tried to rig the game by lying to the very people he was betting against.
Calshie banned him because he failed to cooperate with their investigation. The company said he received a 30-day notice on August 7 but ignored it. Santos dismissed the accusations on his podcast, saying, “I guess people lost money,” per the Washington Examiner. He also claimed, “Some people made unexpected money,” showing he knew the market was fragile.
The federal regulator, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, also stepped in. They ordered Santos to surrender $17,569.98 in profits and pay a $17,500 civil penalty in July. He also agreed to a three-year ban from trading on prediction markets, according to the Washington Examiner. He settled without admitting or denying wrongdoing.
Santos tried to mock the company after the ban. He wrote on X that Kalshi is an “unserious company” that “violates its own notices and deadlines lol,” per the Washington Examiner. But the facts show a man who thought he could outsmart the system and profit from his own lies.
Hey @Kalshi thanks for the lifetime ban from your gambling platform.
Let’s see how much longer you guys are around for. 💋
— George Santos (@Georgesantos) August 31, 2026
