The University of Virginia’s Center for Politics made sweeping changes Wednesday to its House race ratings ahead of the 2026 midterms, shifting 17 congressional contests in response to new redistricting maps, primary election results, and mounting scandals surrounding several incumbents.
The biggest changes came in Florida, where Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis recently signed a new congressional map expected to strengthen the GOP’s position heading into November.
Nine of the rating adjustments involved Florida districts alone, with several Democratic-held seats suddenly becoming far more competitive for Republicans.
Among the most dramatic shifts was Florida’s 14th Congressional District, currently represented by Democrat Kathy Castor. The district moved from “Safe Democratic” all the way to “Leans Republican,” signaling a major change in the political landscape under the new map.
Rep. Darren Soto’s 9th District also shifted sharply, moving from “Likely Democratic” to “Likely Republican.”
Two newly configured districts saw significant movement as well. Florida’s 22nd District changed from “Safe Democratic” to “Leans Republican,” while the 25th District moved into true battleground territory as a “Toss-up.”
Several Republican-held districts in Florida also became slightly more competitive, though still favoring the GOP. Seats held by Reps. Gus Bilirakis, Cory Mills, Maria Elvira Salazar, and retiring Rep. Vern Buchanan all shifted from “Safe Republican” to “Likely Republican.”
Overall, however, the new Florida map is widely viewed as a net gain for Republicans and could play a significant role in determining control of the House.
The Center for Politics had already adjusted several Virginia races last week after voters approved a new redistricting plan there. Four Virginia districts previously rated as toss-ups or Republican-leaning were moved toward Democrats.
Tuesday night’s primary elections in Ohio, Michigan, and Indiana also influenced several of the updated ratings.
In Ohio, Rep. Marcy Kaptur’s 9th District shifted from “Leans Republican” to “Toss-up,” despite the district being redrawn in 2025 to favor Republicans. Kaptur narrowly survived reelection in 2024 against Republican Derek Merrin, and the two are now headed toward a rematch this fall.
Republican Rep. Max Miller’s Ohio district also became slightly less secure. The Center for Politics downgraded his 7th District from “Safe Republican” to “Likely Republican,” citing the political fallout from Miller’s highly publicized divorce and custody dispute involving the daughter of Sen. Bernie Moreno.
Scandal concerns also affected other races across the country.
In North Carolina, allegations of sexual misconduct and reports of a House Ethics Committee investigation prompted analysts to shift Rep. Chuck Edwards’ 11th District from “Likely Republican” to “Leans Republican.”
In Texas, the vacant 23rd Congressional District previously represented by scandal-plagued former Rep. Tony Gonzales moved from “Safe Republican” to “Likely Republican,” reflecting concerns about the seat’s stability without an incumbent.
Elsewhere, several Democratic districts strengthened while a few Republican seats became more vulnerable.
Indiana Democrat Frank Mrvan’s 1st District improved from “Leans Democratic” to “Likely Democratic.”
Michigan Republican Bill Huizenga’s 4th District moved from “Likely Republican” to “Leans Republican,” while Democratic Rep. Kristen McDonald Rivet’s 8th District shifted from “Leans Democratic” to “Likely Democratic.”
Minnesota Republican Brad Finstad’s 1st District also became slightly more competitive, moving from “Safe Republican” to “Likely Republican.”
