The data is starting to come in that the Democrats plan to vote by mail is backfiring. Also, you’ll notice Economist laying the groundwork for the talking points should President Trump win.
In the State of North Carolina, the Economists claim that non-white ballots are being rejected at a higher rate than white mail-in votes.
From The Economist:
The Tar Heel state has received eight times as many postal votes as it had by this point in 2016. Despite fears about first-time absentee voters botching their ballots, the share that are rejected has in fact fallen to 1.3%, from 2.6% in 2016. This is probably due in part to campaigns educating supporters on voting by mail, and also to new efforts by the state to process such ballots.
However, these gains have been concentrated among white and richer voters, causing North Carolina’s already large racial gap in rejection rates to widen. In 2016 black voters sent in 10% of postal ballots, but 18% of discarded ones. This year, those shares are 17% and 42%. That hurts Democrats, who rely on black voters’ support.
Biden: 57% (+17)
Biden: 51% (+7)
— Johnny Verhovek (@JTHVerhovek) October 28, 2020
Here are the actual votes, notice that Republicans are outvoting Democrats. It is reasonable to believe that there will be some cross-voting between party but as a whole President Trump is looking really good.
Also, in the states where early voting is taking place, we haven’t heard one report from the media about exit polling. If I was a betting man I would wager that’s because exit polling could show they are voting for President Trump.