Kentucky’s looming Senate race is already exposing familiar fault lines within the Republican Party, and Rep. Andy Barr’s latest argument for his own electability has only intensified the scrutiny. Barr, who is running to replace retiring Sen. Mitch McConnell, has declared himself the candidate best positioned to win the midterm election, citing polling that suggests President Donald Trump is surprisingly unpopular in the Bluegrass State. That claim alone was enough to raise eyebrows. The details of the poll have raised even more.
Barr’s campaign has leaned heavily on a survey conducted by Public Policy Polling, arguing that he performs better against Democratic frontrunner Charles Booker than pro-Trump rival Nate Morris and other potential candidates. The implication is clear: Barr is selling himself as the pragmatic choice, the Republican who can win a general election even if Trump’s influence is supposedly weaker than assumed. But that argument depends entirely on accepting a premise many Republicans find implausible.
The “poll” that Amnesty Andy Barr is promoting is a fake internal poll from a leftwing Dem candidate that claims President Trump is only at a +6 approval rating in *Kentucky*… a state he won by 30 points.
Does Barr really think President Trump is that unpopular?
Pathetic. https://t.co/y4OlFFzXk4 pic.twitter.com/CngWWUE39x
— Andrew Surabian (@Surabees) January 13, 2026
According to reporting highlighted by the New York Post, the poll gives President Trump a net-positive approval rating of just six points in Kentucky. That figure is difficult to square with recent electoral history. Trump carried Kentucky by roughly thirty points, making it one of his strongest states in the country. For many GOP strategists, a poll suggesting Trump is barely above water there immediately triggers skepticism about methodology, intent, or both.
That skepticism has been voiced bluntly by Andrew Surabian, a Republican strategist, who dismissed the survey as a “fake internal poll from a leftwing Dem candidate.” His criticism went straight to the heart of the matter: if Barr’s argument rests on the idea that Trump is unpopular in Kentucky, does Barr genuinely believe Republican primary voters will accept that premise? To critics, promoting such a poll looks less like savvy positioning and more like a misreading of the electorate.
Questions have also emerged around Barr’s claims of institutional support. He has said that more than 100 members of Congress back his candidacy, but several lawmakers have publicly disputed that characterization.
Rep. Randy Feenstra of Iowa stated flatly that he is not endorsing anyone in the Kentucky race, and Rep. Tony Wied of Wisconsin likewise declined to back Barr, with one adviser noting that the Barr campaign initially misspelled Wied’s name. These may sound like minor details, but in a high-stakes primary, they reinforce doubts about credibility and organization.
By contrast, Nate Morris has positioned himself squarely within Trump’s political orbit. He has spoken openly about his close friendship with Vice President JD Vance, who reportedly encouraged him to enter the race, and he has secured endorsements from figures closely associated with the Trump movement, including the late Turning Point USA founder Charlie Kirk and Sens. Jim Banks and Bernie Moreno.
Morris has not softened his rhetoric, describing McConnell as emblematic of “the worst of government” and arguing that career politicians should be removed from office.
