In a dramatic reversal few predicted just months ago, Canada’s Liberal Party—led by newly minted Prime Minister Mark Carney—is projected to secure its fourth consecutive federal election victory, defying both political headwinds and international turmoil stirred by none other than U.S. President Donald Trump.
Carney, a former central banker turned statesman, inherited a fractured party in crisis after Justin Trudeau’s resignation earlier this year. The Liberals were all but left for dead following Trudeau’s political implosion and Chrystia Freeland’s sudden exit. But a jolt of nationalism, ignited by Trump’s tariff barrage and controversial calls to make Canada the 51st U.S. state, flipped the electoral map in the Liberals’ favor.
Tonight’s Canadian election was just an IQ test for the Canadian public, which they failed. Nothing more.
A conservative victory would not have been an automatic “win” the way most people think.
The system in Canada is too entrenched, the Senate too stacked, the integrity of…
— Jon du Toit (@jondutoit) April 29, 2025
As of late Monday, the Liberals were leading with 161 seats in Parliament, ahead of the Conservatives’ 150. The magic number is 172 for a majority in Canada’s 343-seat House of Commons, and while the final seat count is still pending, what’s clear is that Carney has engineered a comeback that many thought impossible just a few weeks ago.
“We were dead and buried in December. Now we are going to form a government,” said former Justice Minister David Lametti, summing up the party’s internal disbelief and triumph. “We have turned this around thanks to Mark.”
Indeed, Carney’s leadership—measured, composed, and sharply focused on policy—proved the antidote to the populist turbulence pushed across the border. Trump’s annexation rhetoric and false claims about American subsidies to Canada triggered widespread backlash. His bombastic Truth Social posts—complete with calls to erase the border, absorb Canada into the U.S., and unleash a tax-free economic paradise—only added fuel to the fire.
“America can no longer subsidize Canada… unless Canada is a State!” Trump raged online, vowing zero tariffs in exchange for sovereignty.
Covid and a decade of liberal destruction were loud alarm bells for Canadians to wake up out of their “MSM induced mass psychosis”
At some point you can no longer blame the media
We’re way past that point https://t.co/LvKzYiNGFz
— Jon du Toit (@jondutoit) April 29, 2025
The Canadian reaction was swift and severe. U.S. vacations were canceled, American goods boycotted, and a record 7.3 million early votes cast. Trump may have unintentionally accomplished what no Liberal strategist could: unite a fractured electorate under the red banner of sovereignty.
Carney capitalized, delivering a fiery rebuttal on the eve of the election: “The Americans want to break us so they can own us. Those aren’t just words. That’s what’s at risk.”
If Canada wants to destroy itself, not our problem, but we do need to keep them out of the U.S. from here on out. Unless they are going to get arrested for sharing right wing memes. Then – sanctuary.
— Cernovich (@Cernovich) April 29, 2025
But the path ahead won’t be easy. The cost-of-living crisis looms large, and with more than 75% of Canadian exports tied to U.S. markets, Trump’s escalating tariff threats could hit hard. Carney’s pledge to use counter-tariff revenues to support Canadian workers signals a combative economic posture, but it’s also a gamble.
On the opposing side, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre attempted to channel public frustration with Trudeau’s legacy, only to be overshadowed by Trump’s overreach. Poilievre fired back at the U.S. president, insisting, “Canada will NEVER be the 51st state.” It was a message intended to assert independence—but one that ultimately reinforced the Liberal message that Canada’s sovereignty was under siege.
