With just two weeks left in the 2024 campaign, the Pennsylvania Senate race is heating up, and not in a way that’s looking great for the Democrats. According to the latest Cook Political Report, the matchup between long-time Democratic Senator Bob Casey and Republican challenger Dave McCormick has officially been downgraded to a “toss-up.” Ouch. The once seemingly safe seat for Democrats is now teetering, and McCormick is gaining momentum right when it counts.
Last week’s Atlas Intel survey showed McCormick leading Casey by a single point, and the RealClearPolitics average of surveys has McCormick slicing into Casey’s lead all month. Just at the end of September, Casey was up by five points, but now? McCormick is trailing by less than two. The race has become the fourth Senate contest labeled a “toss-up” by Cook, joining Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin. All of these seats are currently held by Democrats. So yeah, the Dems are sweating.
The situation looks even worse for them when you factor in that Republicans are projected to flip both Montana and West Virginia. If they do that, the GOP will already have 51 Senate seats. The Dems are hanging on for dear life and need to hold on to every single “toss-up” seat if they want to maintain control. Their only hope for a comeback involves pulling off an upset in places like Montana, Texas, or Florida, all of which are leaning Republican. Good luck with that.
McCormick, meanwhile, has been making his case to Pennsylvanians, and it’s resonating. Just last Thursday, he visited Washington County to tour a natural gas drilling site, signaling his focus on boosting Pennsylvania’s energy industry. McCormick emphasized the importance of “unleashing the power of Pennsylvania’s natural gas industry,” which means streamlining regulations and expanding pipelines to get the gas where it needs to go.
Bob Casey just endorsed the most liberal nominee in U.S. history. pic.twitter.com/J0V6W7CUlh
— Dave McCormick (@DaveMcCormickPA) July 23, 2024
This visit was followed by a brief meeting with supporters at The Washington Brewing Company, where he laid out his platform. Beyond energy production, McCormick spoke out in support of the Second Amendment, his pro-life stance, and his firm opposition to critical race theory in education. In a nod to environmental concerns, McCormick did acknowledge that while environmental protection is important, it shouldn’t come at the expense of economic growth and job security. Smart, pragmatic policies, he argues, can balance both.
Meanwhile, Casey’s camp seems to be in panic mode. Apparently, things have gotten so bad for him that he’s now attaching himself to… Donald Trump? Yep, the incumbent Democrat who’s been riding Biden’s coattails is now running ads highlighting how he “bucked Biden” and “sided with Trump” on key issues like fracking and tariffs on China. It’s a desperate attempt to win over those critical swing voters in a state where Trump is polling ahead of Kamala Harris.
Casey’s ad touts how he worked with Trump on ending NAFTA and slapped tariffs on China. It’s a classic case of trying to have it both ways: stay cozy with the Democratic base but also appeal to Trump voters. But if you’re Bob Casey, you have to wonder what it says about your own record when your best argument for re-election is your occasional agreement with Trump.
Bob Casey thinks Donald Trump is going to win Pennsylvania.
That’s the only way to explain Casey’s new ad, which ALIGNS HIM WITH TRUMP.
He bucks Biden by name, and does not mention Kamala Harris at all.
An endangered Dem is RUNNING AWAY FROM HARRIS AND WITH TRUMP.
Just huge. pic.twitter.com/AZfcVeM02E
— Tim Murtaugh (@TimMurtaugh) October 18, 2024
At this point, McCormick’s rise is no fluke. He’s tapping into the issues Pennsylvanians care about—jobs, energy, economic growth—and contrasting himself against a 30-year incumbent who’s suddenly trying to appear bipartisan when it’s politically convenient. Two weeks to go, and Pennsylvania could be in for a big red surprise.
.@JDVance: “Dave McCormick and Eric Hovde — they’re not running ads about how much they agree with Kamala Harris. It’s the Democrat candidates who are running ads about how much they agree with Donald Trump… Kamala Harris’s policies just aren’t popular.” pic.twitter.com/zEfpdEhIww
— Trump War Room (@TrumpWarRoom) October 21, 2024